Greg Jennett, Host: Parliament doesn't sit until tomorrow, but nearly all MPs and Senators are already back in the building, which incidentally turned 35 years old today. This means our political panel is right here with us. And joining us, Labor's Assistant Trade Minister Senator Tim Ayres. Welcome back, Tim. And Shadow International Development and Pacific Minister Nationals MP Michael McCormack. Welcome to you too, Michael. Yes, I guess you were mere pre-schoolers 35 years ago when this building opened, but here we find ourselves a few years later. Budget coming up tomorrow Tim Ayres, Single Parent Payment announced today. More to come where that came from. Lower paid welfare support payments, we can bank on that?

Tim Ayres: Well, I think, like everybody else, Greg, you'll have to wait until tomorrow night's budget. This budget is framed in a way that it is going to be a budget that's constrained, of course, by what's happening around the world, by what's happening in terms of inflationary pressures on the economy, what's framed by the war in Ukraine. And it'll be about Labor delivering on its election promises but trying to make sure that nobody's left behind. And there will be within the constraints of a budget, you know we are going to do the very best that we can do for the most vulnerable Australians.

Greg Jennett: I know you would want to await detail before passing judgement, Michael McCormack, but would you begrudge an increase in JobSeeker if the government can find that money?

Michael McCormack: There's 80,000 vacancies in regional Australia at the moment and certainly the government should be looking at ways and means to get those 80,000 jobs filled. And regional Australia is going to pay the brunt. They're going to shoulder the burden for this budget, and it will be a budget where regional Australia is going to be hit hardest, we know that. And already Catherine King has put on hold $120 billion of projects because she's going to review them. The only thing that's going to be piling up, the only thing that's going to get built is the in-tray in Catherine King's office and I really worry about what this budget is going to do for regional Australia.

Tim Ayres: It's the National Party of today. They're opposed to it before they've seen it. They say that their constituents are going to suffer, but they haven't read it. I think people should hold and reflect on the budget when it's delivered. What Australians want to see is a budget that delivers for them, delivers on the key infrastructure and service questions for ordinary Australians.

Greg Jennett: There'd still be a number of people on, single women in particular, on Single Parent Payments in regional Australia, and that's having its rules changed effectively, prolonging and or increasing, depending which way you look at it.

Michael McCormack: Well Tim speaks to the most vulnerable. We've got to look after the most vulnerable we did as a government. And I'm sure that the budget will have some things in there, but you even look at the HECS debts that students are now paying back the highest amount of interest they're going to be paying in 32 years. You always pay more under Labor, that's a fact. And tomorrow's budget, it'll be no different. And look, if I'm wrong, if it's not going to hurt regional Australia, well, I'm happy to admit that, and I look forward to Tim coming in and trying to justify it if the opposite is the case.

Greg Jennett: All right, let's see if we can find some consensus around gas taxes, Petroleum Resource Rent Taxes going up to the tune of $2.4 billion. The question for the government, though, Tim Ayres is could it have gone harder? There were lots of options available to it that could have raised much more additional revenue than $2.4 billion. Why not?

Tim Ayres: Well, I think this is a sensible bringing forward of a series of measures, there's been broad consultation, it will deliver. On the plus side, terms of revenue mean that Australians get a fair share of their resources being extracted by these companies. The gas sector is a sector where I think Australians are entitled to believe that they should get their fair share in terms of proceeds, and I think this package does the trick.

Greg Jennett: And the industry itself, we just heard Michael McCormack is looking for certainty in their terms, that means bipartisanship, so that this is done and legislated as announced by the government.

Michael McCormack: Well Labor's done nothing but demonise mining. Labor's done nothing but demonise an industry which, through coal and gas and iron ore, has actually propped up the budget books and propped up during COVID our economy. And indeed, the industry which supports tens of thousands of workers, Labor should be out championing those and yet they're demonising the industry. And I know we need to get to net zero and the mining industry is playing a big part in that. But let's not just cut off the gas mines - it's bad enough that we've shut down Lidell, we're going to be paying more for energy, and we haven't seen the power price cuts that Labor promised, that Anthony Albanese promised on 97 occasions. Where are those? Maybe they might be in tomorrow's budget - 

Greg Jennett: Let's get to that in a moment. But just to follow up on Petroleum Resource Rent Tax, you're saying Labor is trying to do all sorts of things to mining. Is that an argument against supporting?

Michael McCormack: Well, it's a $2.4 billion whack to the gas industry. I'll wait and find out the detail. I know that the companies themselves have had to sign a document to say they're not allowed to go public on it and I - good on Samantha McCulloch for coming out and talking about it she's very articulate - 

Greg Jennett: They seem very good about it.

Michael McCormack: Well, let's see the detail. It's always the detail. The devil's in the detail with Labor. Let's see what transpires tomorrow night.

Greg Jennett: Okay, so to Michael's point, Tim, about household energy bill relief has been a long time in the waiting, announced or foreshadowed in December, and we are going to get the details tomorrow? Why was it necessary to wait this long?

Tim Ayres: Well, let's wait for the detail tomorrow evening. Remember, Labor's commitment on energy prices was made in December, prior to the Russia Ukraine conflict. It's a commitment that is about what happens at the end of the term. And the one thing that we know for sure is that the lowest price energy for Australia, the lowest price sources of electricity for Australian households and business is renewables plus storage. Now, any other path means higher electricity prices. The government has been very diligent in this area. And in terms of what Michael says about where we are on mining and resources, this is a government that's backed mining and resources, backed the sector, our National Reconstruction Fund, very significant part of that is all about backing the mining industry to move up the value chain.

Greg Jennett: So are you saying that the $275 commitment on household energy bills can and will still be met?

Tim Ayres: Well, that's the nature of the commitment, it's there. Let's wait to see tomorrow night what the details of the package are.

Greg Jennett: All right. A surplus appears in the offing, apparently Michael McCormack. Long overdue. Why not spend some of that, do you think government - 

Michael McCormack: I still remember Wayne Swan having his speech written by Jim Chalmers, who will deliver the budget tomorrow, saying, the four years of surplus I announced tonight, never saw one of them. Labor hasn't produced a surplus since 1989. Most of them wouldn't be able to spell the word, let alone pronounce it. They don't know what a surplus is. So, yeah, good luck with that. If you believe that Labor believes in surpluses, you also believe in fairies at the bottom of the garden -

Greg Jennett: Well, it might be something for the kids out there -

Michael McCormack: I do. Okay, let's put that point out there. Don't want to spoil the kids’ afternoons. But look, it's nonsense. It's poppycock. It really is. Labor and surplus, the two words don't belong in the same sentence.

Greg Jennett: Well, it might be somewhat more believable because it is for the current financial year. They only need to get it right -

Michael McCormack: Sorry, I'm a doubter you still don't doubt -

Tim Ayres: Let's wait and see what Jim Chalmers says about this matter tomorrow night. But I don't want to hear too much crowing about surpluses from a government that didn't deliver one over the course of the last decade. They did deliver the little black mugs which said, back in black, all printed off, ready to go. I've got one in my office.

Michael McCormack: I'll bring one in next time -

Tim Ayres: But it was produced just a little bit early. We've got to have our eye on what really matters here. This budget in the environment that we're in with the cost of living going up needs to deliver sensible cost-of-living relief - will deliver sensible cost-of-living relief for the most vulnerable Australians and for ordinary Australians out there in a way that's not inflationary. It will deliver outcomes consistent with what it is that Anthony Albanese said we would do in the lead-up to the election. And that's the kind of budget that people should expect tomorrow night.

Greg Jennett: All right. Now, there is a bit of policy overlap in your respective portfolios around the Pacific and our regional neighbours. ABC reporting suggests that there is to be a new approach and a hefty dollop of funding to go with defence, overseas development, policing in our neighbourhood. Is that long overdue? Are the neighbours anticipating this from Australia?

Tim Ayres: Well, I don't want to sound like a broken record, Greg. You're going to have to wait for tomorrow night. I saw the story. I think you can expect that what happens in the budget tonight will reflect the approach that Labor in Government has taken to the Pacific. This is our neighbourhood, this is the region in which we live. It is utterly vital that we establish good, effective relationships across the region, that we support development, that we respect the sovereignty of our Pacific neighbours, we support their sovereignty and resilience and we build a neighbourhood that's resilient, whether it's in terms of dealing with the impact of climate change or the broader security and economic questions.

Greg Jennett: And is that the message you've been receiving in your travels?

Michael McCormack: Well, the framework about the Pacific was put in place during the Coalition years and, look, if there's additional funding for the Pacific, then that's welcomed. If there's more police and those sorts of provisions, we'd certainly welcome, and we don't welcome the migration lottery - the immigration system by which Labor is putting in place. We don't want to have a brain drain from those specific countries who need their best and brightest for themselves. But, look, I'll await the outcomes of the budget and let's hope that there is something good there for the Pacific.

Greg Jennett: You see, this is a bit of a follow-up or extension to the Morrison era?

Michael McCormack: Indeed -

Greg Jennett: Step up, is it?

Michael McCormack: Well, let's hope so.

Greg Jennett: All right, quick final one, Stuart Robert leaving. Is he trying to jump before Robodebt?

Michael McCormack: Wish him all the very best. He's been a good mate of mine and wish him all the very best and certainly hope to see local campaigning on the issues that matter to the people of Fadden. It'll be an important by-election. Yes, of course, but let's hope to see that the Liberal Party will endorse LNP, will endorse a good local who will get in there and fight for interests as Stuart has. 

Greg Jennett: And not winnable for Labor in Fadden?

Tim Ayres: I think it's a very tall order in that electorate. As we know, it's almost unprecedented for a government to take a seat off an opposition in a by-election. It's happened once in a hundred years. It happened just a few months ago. And I was very pleased to see Mary Doyle walk in as the new Member for Aston into the Labor Caucus today. She is going to be a real fighter for that seat. We're delighted to have her in the Parliament and in the Caucus.

Greg Jennett: You're giving us the segue for our next item, Tim Ayres. We're going to thank you and farewell you both. Tim Ayres, Michael McCormack. Thanks very much for coming back on Afternoon Briefing.

ENDS