Improved east coast gas supply outlook

The latest report from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission shows the east coast gas market is forecast to have sufficient supply to meet forecast demand for the remainder of 2023.

In August 2022, when the ACCC forecast a shortfall of 56 petajoules (PJ) in the east coast gas market in 2023, the Albanese Government took action to make sure this supply crisis didn’t eventuate.

The Heads of Agreement, secured in September 2022 with the three east coast LNG Exporters ensures an additional 157PJ of gas is made available to the domestic market before being contracted for export. 

These cooperative efforts with the industry have paid off, with the ACCC now sufficiently satisfied that there won’t be a material shortfall in the eastern market for the remainder of 2023, particularly if another 3PJ is contracted to domestic users.

While the ACCC forecasts the domestic market will need an additional 11 PJ in the third quarter of 2023, they note there is a surplus of 18 PJs available to meet this demand and the Government is confident the commitments made under the Heads of Agreement are more than sufficient to cover this quantity of gas.

This ACCC data is one of the key inputs to the Minister’s consideration to not commence the notification period for the newly reformed Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism for the upcoming quarter.

“The Government understands that reliable energy supply and affordable energy prices are top of mind for Australian families and Australian businesses,” Minister King said.

“This is why we also took action with the Energy Price Relief package to take the sting out of energy price rises.

“I continue to work with the resources sector to ensure it delivers the energy and minerals needed for our own security and clean energy transformation, as well as well as the energy security of our trading partners. “

Gas has a key role to play, as a flexible source of energy – providing peaking power today and continuing to provide firming and back-up power and to smooth the transition to renewables, while guaranteeing energy security both for Australia and for our partners in the region.

In the longer term, to improve the way the gas market operates, the Government will implement a mandatory code of conduct for gas companies to ensure access to gas at reasonable terms and prices.

The ACCC report is available here.