Australia has reinforced its position as the world’s largest lithium miner with higher prices and continued strong global demand for the resources critical to low-emissions technologies.

The March 2023 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) publication from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources forecasts lithium and base metal products to earn around $47 billion in the current financial year.

Minister for Resources and Northern Australia, Madeleine King, said the forecast value of lithium exports had tripled since last year and was set to reach $19 billion in 2022–23.

“Base metals and critical minerals such as lithium are crucial components of clean-energy technologies such as batteries, solar panels and wind turbines, which will help the world lower emissions and meet net-zero commitments,” Minister King said.

“The latest Resources and Energy Quarterly underlines the importance of our critical minerals sector and Australia’s ambition to become a clean-energy superpower.

“The Resources and Energy Quarterly forecasts that exports of lithium and base metals (and their raw material inputs) will equal the export value of combined (thermal and metallurgical) coal exports by 2027–28.”

However, export earnings are forecast to ease to $395 billion in 2023–24, and $346 billion in 2024–25 as prices continue to normalise.

Minister King said Australia’s resources and energy exports continue to be strikingly resilient and prove the indispensable role Australia plays as a stable and reliable supplier despite the global turmoil caused by Russia’s illegal and immoral invasion of Ukraine.

The report found iron ore prices have rebounded strongly in 2023, reflecting a recovery in Chinese steel production, with export earnings forecast to be worth about $121 billion in 2022–23 compared with $132 billion in 2021–22.

It forecasts liquefied natural gas (LNG) earnings to be worth $91 billion in 2022–23, up from $71 billion the previous financial year, as high prices more than offset the impact of smaller LNG export volumes.

Although international coal prices have eased, the Resources and Energy Quarterly forecasts they are likely to remain higher than they were prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine for some years to come. 

Despite weather events and COVID-19 disruptions affecting supply chains, Australia’s combined coal export earnings are forecast to be worth $128 billion in 2022–23 compared with $114 billion in 2021–22.

The March 2023 Resources and Energy Quarterly is available on the Department of Industry, Science and Resources website here.