Export earnings from Australia’s resources and energy are set to continue to normalise from the extraordinary highs of 2022-23 and on the back of slower global growth, lower prices for major commodities and a stronger Australian dollar.

Minister for Resources and Northern Australia Madeleine King said the latest forecasts in the September 2024 Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ), from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, underscore the ongoing importance of the sector to Australia’s economic wellbeing.

“Despite reductions in some bulk commodity prices, there have been record gold prices and ongoing gains in iron ore export volumes,” Minister King said.

“The resources and energy sector continues to underpin Australia’s economy and support more than a quarter of a million direct jobs.”

Minister King said although lower world prices for iron ore and LNG exports are feeding into forecasts, Australian iron ore and LNG continues to support the economies and energy security of Australia’s trading partners.

Minister King said the data forecasts higher demand for resources that are essential for low-emissions technologies such as copper, aluminium and lithium. 

“Lower prices for critical minerals underline the need for government support for our critical minerals sector through policies such as the Production Tax Incentive,” Minister King said. 

“Measures such as the Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive and the newly established Minerals Security Partnership Finance Network signed with partners such as the United States, India, the Republic of Korea, Japan and the United Kingdom will help create jobs and prosperity for future generations.

“The Albanese Government is stepping up to lead on critical minerals for the benefit of Australia and the world,” Minister King said. 

The September REQ forecasts export earnings to ease to $372 billion in 2024–25, down from $415 billion in 2023–24, due to weaker global prices, slower world growth and increased supply of key commodities.

Export earnings are forecast to fall to $354 billion in 2025–26 but then level out and start to rebound. While earnings forecasts are lower due to lower global commodity prices, export volumes are forecast to rise marginally over the coming two years. The forecasts are broadly consistent with the June 2024 REQ forecasts.

Most industries have recorded steady growth in exploration since 2020, and exploration for most industries remains above the recent average.

The September 2024 Resources and Energy Quarterly is available on the Department of Industry, Science and Resources website.